NEWS ANALYSIS: Real change in Cuba? The wait begins, as pope returns

c. 1998 Religion News Service VATICAN CITY _ Now what? As Pope John Paul II returned home and posters of his image were removed from the signposts of Havana, Vatican officials and other Catholics said they do not believe the pontiff’s five-day trip will generate any immediate wholesale changes in the communist country.”If I’ve learned […]

c. 1998 Religion News Service

VATICAN CITY _ Now what?

As Pope John Paul II returned home and posters of his image were removed from the signposts of Havana, Vatican officials and other Catholics said they do not believe the pontiff’s five-day trip will generate any immediate wholesale changes in the communist country.”If I’ve learned anything over the years of watching Castro it is that he’s a very, very unpredictable man,”said former Denver Archbishop James Stafford, who presides over the Vatican Council on the Laity.


Nonetheless, Stafford, one of the 22 bishops tapped by the pope to become cardinal next month, said he believes the trip will promote religious freedom, if not political change.”It will be very hard for Castro to suppress religious expression in the future”largely because he opened his borders, even if temporarily, to the pope, he said.

Moreover, Stafford said,”Clearly, there is a very strong core of believing lay men and women who needed this kind of forceful support that will enable them not only to continue but to be very creative and courageous.” In the immediate aftermath of the trip, which fulfilled a burning desire of the pope, pressure to eliminate the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba is likely to mount in the United States and Europe.

The National Conference of Catholic Bishops, the U.S. prelates’ organization, is expected to renew efforts to end the embargo, and European leaders are already exploring ways to get rid of it.

But with U.S. electoral politics driving much of the debate, it is far from certain any change will come soon.

Clinton administration officials on Monday (Jan. 26) rejected any immediate change in U.S. policy while praising John Paul’s words in Cuba, saying he spoke”eloquently.” State Department spokesman Jamie Rubin told the regular media briefing Monday that”our view of the embargo has not changed.” Meanwhile, White House spokesman Michael McCurry reminded reporters,”We understand and respect the pope’s opposing the use of economic sanctions in Cuba and elsewhere.”However, the Cuban embargo is a matter of U.S. law, and that law enjoys very strong bipartisan support in our Congress and among the American people, who believe the time for peaceful change must come and must come soon in Cuba.” On the matter of the embargo, he said,”We very respectfully disagree with the Holy Father.” Officials in Rome also downplayed the possibility of the U.S. responding to the pope’s plea.”It’s unlikely but it’s not impossible,”said Eber Ferrer, a Brazilian who runs the Latin American department at Caritas International in Rome.”The lobby of the Cubans in Miami is very strong in favor of the embargo. But the pope has shown that this is a wrong strategy, which may have some impact.” The pope’s remarks, Ferrer said, show two things: The economic embargo is an anachronism of the Cold War and ending it would allow the import not just of goods but people and ideas that may prove perilous to Castro’s hold on power.

Some notable conservative voices, including the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, have renewed calls for the embargo to be lifted.”I think to anybody outside the U.S., it seems so silly that we should be doing this to a little country,”said the Rev. Edward Hayes, who heads the Maryknoll foreign missionary society in Rome.”You could see it during the Cold War, but now it just seems kind of mean.” Vatican officials and church leaders in Cuba say the pope’s trip has clearly given new life to the Catholic Church and possibly insulated it against future attacks by the government.

Cardinal Jaime Ortega of Havana went so far as to predict that the church could well become an”intermediary”in the coming political transition of the country.”I think there will be more liberty for the church and am hopeful that that will mean more rights for all Cubans,”said Italian Bishop Giovanni Cheli, who heads the Vatican Council on Migrants and Travelers and will also become a cardinal next month.

The church is expected to fortify its position in Cuba by continuing the pope’s appeals for liberty and freedom. But it will also use its resources to improve health care and housing in Cuba.


It is unclear just how much more money will be made available to the country, but Ferrer of Caritas said he expects the pope’s trip to”bring a boost”in donations. Caritas has spent about $25 million in Cuba over the past five years on medicine, food, housing, health care and other services.

The Catholic charitable relief service is scheduled to host a meeting in Rome next month to discuss new aid to Cuba and other poor nations.

Less certain, however, will be Castro’s ultimate response to the pope’s appeals for more freedom and liberty.

Castro was a polite and efficient host. After his initial pledge to broadcast only one of the pope’s four Masses, he aired them all, and a lot more.

The communist leader listened politely as the pope urged him to allow Catholic schools closed down after the 1959 revolution to operate freely.

And Castro promised to review the pope’s appeal for the release of political prisoners, which U.S. groups put at 500.


But those appeals may be going nowhere. Vatican officials say they do not expect Castro to comply with the request to reopen Catholic schools, at least any time soon. Such a move, they say, challenges his authority.

A major prisoner release is also far from certain. National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon told CNN he agreed with the pope that”nobody should be in prison for reasons of conscience”but added,”we do not have that kind of individual in Cuban jails.” But if Cuban exiles and the Clinton administration were hoping the pope’s Christian ideals would change the thinking of their nemesis, they were mistaken.”Cuba knows no fear and despises deceit,”Castro told the pope on the tarmac of the airport as the pontiff prepared to board his plane.”It listens with respect but believes in its ideas; it firmly defends its principles and has nothing to hide from the world.”

DEA END HEILBRONNER

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