c. 2004 Religion News Service

BOSTON _ Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry enjoys a comfortable lead over President Bush among Arab-American voters in four “battleground states,” according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by Zogby International for the Arab American Institute, showed Kerry leading in Michigan, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania while Bush’s numbers continue to sink.

The poll, which interviewed 500 Arab-Americans between July 9 and 11, is the third in a series of six polls that will track the political preferences of the estimated 510,000 Arab-Americans who will vote in the November election in the battleground states. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Analysts say Arab-American voters, while a small percentage of all voters, have enough sway that they could swing the election in either direction. They noted that in Michigan, home to an estimated 235,000 Arab-American voters, Al Gore won the state by just more than 200,000 votes in 2000.

Since February, Arab-American views of President Bush’s job performance have declined, from 32 percent in February to 27.5 percent in July among those who gave him an “excellent” or “good” rating.

After a dip in April, John Kerry’s support among Arab-Americans has remained steady at 54 percent, while those supporting Bush’s re-election declined in July to 24.5 percent.

The poll reported findings from the Arab-American community in general, but it also separated out different facets of the religiously diverse group.

Seventy-three percent of Arab Muslims, for example, support Kerry, while only 6 percent support Bush. Among Arab Catholics, the margin is closer, with 47 percent supporting Kerry and 36 percent supporting Bush. Among Arab Orthodox Christians, Kerry holds a 43 percent to 31 percent lead.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader, whose family is Lebanese Christian, has actually lost support _ from 20 percent to 13 percent since February.

“Of special concern to the president … should be the fact that 30 percent of Arab-Americans who identified themselves as Republicans indicate that `it is time for someone new,”’ the report said.

The political issues that rank highest in importance to Arab-American voters are the economy, which was “very important” to 80 percent of those polled, terrorism/national security (74 percent), and healthcare (70.5 percent), a finding that is consistent with general U.S. voters.

Those who listed those issues as central to their voting choice said they preferred Kerry to Bush on all of them. On the terrorism/national security issue, 50.5 percent favored Kerry, compared to 28 percent who favored Bush.

On the hot-button issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though, Arab- American voters were less confident in Kerry. In both the April and July polls, 48 percent and 50 percent, respectively, said they had confidence in “neither” Bush nor Kerry on that issue.

A majority of Bush voters, and half of Kerry voters, said they would not change their vote if they disagreed with their candidate’s Middle East policy but agreed with him on most other issues.

DEA/JL END ROSSI