On Super Tuesday, John McCain benefited greatly from winner-take-all primaries in big states, but he also assembled the broad religious coalition that characterized his previous victories. California is a good example: he won the unaffiliated (43%) and white Catholics (40%), broke even with Romney among white Protestants (37%), and finished second among white evangelical Protestants (29%). He also racked up big wins among Latinos and Asians. Similar patterns appeared in the McCain vote New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Hillary Clinton won the biggest states also by assembling a broad religious coalition. In California, she obtained a solid victory over Barack Obama among white Protestants (48% to 34%) and Jews (48% to 44%) along with big wins among white Catholics. In fact, the only groups missing from the contemporary Democratic constituencies were African Americans and the unaffiliated.
Some states showed the possibility of broader coalitions for the other candidates. For example, Obama won white Protestants on this way to victory in Connecticut and he won the overall white vote in the close New Mexico contest. Mitt Romney carried white born again Protestants in both New York and California.
As anticipated, it was Missouri that revealed most fully the impact of religion on the Super Tuesday vote. For the Democrats, Obama edged Clinton by about one percent of the vote (49 to 48%), with a combination of black Protestants, minority Catholics and the unaffiliated, plus a large minority of white Catholics. In fact, Obama won the Protestant and Catholic vote overall.
For the Republicans, Huckabee just fell short of winning the Show-Me state, also by about one percent of the vote (32% to 33%), with Romney close behind (29%). Huckabee won the white Protestant vote overall, buoyed by strong support from evangelicals. Romney took top honors away from McCain among the less observant Republicans and also finished second among evangelicals.
Missouri shows the likely impacts of religion in the final weeks of the nomination contest. It closely resembles Ohio, one of the few big states still to come (March 4).
