McCain’s evangelical problem, Obama’s Catholic one

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A new Newsweek poll, which has Obama leading McCain overall by 44 percent to 41 percent, has McCain leading Obama among white evangelicals 60 percent to 23 percent, and among white Catholics 49 percent to 33 percent. That’s pretty good news for Obama on the evangelical front, and for McCain on the Catholic one, comparatively speaking. In 2000, white evangelicals preferred Bush over Gore 68-30 and in 2004, Bush over Kerry 78-21. So the Newsweek numbers put Obama in Gore territory. In 2000, white (non-Hispanic) Catholics went for Bush over Gore 52-45 and in 2004, Bush over Kerry 56-43. There, the Newsweek numbers make out McCain as slightly stronger than the 2004 Bush. Bottom line, McCain is indeed in a bit of trouble with the GOP evangelical base and Obama’s got something of a white Catholic problem.