Evangelicals by Region

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The latest Quinnipiac poll on the presidential race in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin suggests that there may be a regional aspect to the evangelical vote worth keeping an eye on. In Colorado, evangelicals are backing McCain over Obama by a whopping 78 percent to 16 percent. That’s substantially better than the 74-24 margin by which Bush beat Kerry in 2004. But in the Upper Midwest, McCain’s margin is much lower: 60-27 in Michigan, 62-30 in Minnesota, and just 54-34 in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, the 2004 exit polls failed to ask the evangelical question in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but in Michigan Bush’s margin was 76-24–which means that Obama is running well ahead of Kerry there at this point. The hypothesis, then, is that Obama the Born Again Midwesterner has a greater appeal to Midwestern evangelicals than he does to evangelicals in other parts of the country–or at least than to the Dobsonian evangelicals of the Mountain West. Let’s see whether future polls bear this out.

  • hi spiritual politics,
    i just wandered in.
    i personally find it silly that a candidate’s particular religious denomination actually matters to voters. and i find it silly that a voter’s religion would sway him/her to vote a particular way.
    not all agree though, as made obvious by your post here. religion will be a big factor in this election, especially with the high-flying misconception that obama is a muslim.
    there’s actually an interesting debate going on right now at this website. it’s about whether faith should matter when electing politicians.
    seems up your alley.