McCain’s trifecta

Want an explanation for John McCain’s surge in the polls? He’s hit a trifecta in the evangelical derby, says Luis Lugo, director of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. Addressing journalists on Tuesday, Lugo said McCain’s performance at Pastor Rick Warren’s forum at Saddleback, his steering (or rather Phyllis Schafly’s steering) of the […]

Want an explanation for John McCain’s surge in the polls?

He’s hit a trifecta in the evangelical derby, says Luis Lugo, director of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

Addressing journalists on Tuesday, Lugo said McCain’s performance at Pastor Rick Warren’s forum at Saddleback, his steering (or rather Phyllis Schafly’s steering) of the GOP platform, and his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, has energized his party’s white evangelical base.


“He’s had a good run with these folks,” said Lugo.

Pew researchers John Green and Scott Keeter were also on hand to parse some interesting beyond-the-horse race poll numbers.

For instance, according to this CBS News poll, enthusiasm in the GOP for McCain has doubled. Just 24 percent said they were psyched to support McCain on Aug. 20. By Sept. 8, that number jumped to 48 percent. That means more people knocking on doors, calling neighbors, and yes, contacting fellow churchgoers.

McCain has essentially closed the “enthusiasm” gap; and both he and Obama have effectively solidified their bases. That means independents are going to be key in this election, with Catholics, the quintessential swing voters, high on both candidates’ grocery lists. Green said the number of “persuadables” in religious groups are much higher than in 2004.

According to polls taken before the election, about 25 percent of observant and less observant Catholics were strongly for Obama, with another 20 and 15 percent, respectively, saying they backed him, but “weakly.” McCain has higher numbers of Catholics firmly behind him, about 35 percent of the observant and less observant Catholics, but far fewer white Catholics “weakly” behind him, so that number may not change much. Unless, of course, those “weakly” Obama supporters migrate to McCain.

Also interesting is that almost 80 percent of the “persuadable” white Catholics are pro-choice, while less than 40 percent of pro-life white Catholics are still on the fence.

Despite the well-publicized statements by Catholic bishops, however, Catholics may not base their votes on abortion this year, according to Keeter.

Just 39 percent of all Americans viewed abortion as a “very important” issue in this election, according to Pew. That’s down from 47 percent in October 2004.


Meanwhile, 87 percent said the economy, and 77 percent said energy was a “very important” issue to their votes this year.

Finally, in one of the most interesting polls presented Tuesday, 56 percent of white evangelicals said in March 2007 that it’s a “bad thing” for mothers with young children to work outside the home. They were the only religious group in which a majority held that view. And yet they love Palin. Go figure. Our own Adelle M. Banks has a great story on that phenomenon here.

Check out much more from the Pew forum here.

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