Quinnipiac Swings

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Today’s Quinnipiac polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania show big margins for Obama: 51-43 in Florida, 50-42 in Ohio, and 54-39 in Pennsylvania. He trails by five points among white voters in both Florida and Ohio, but is up by four in Pennsylvania. White Catholics split for McCain 51-44 in Florida, 48-47 and 47-45 in Ohio and Pennsylvania respectively. Nothing much of note there. But the difference between the South and the North when it comes to white evangelicals is striking. McCain leads among them in Florida by the normal (for Republican candidates nationwide) 3-1 margin of 71-24. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, however, it’s 2-1: 62-30 and 62-35 respectively. (By contrast, in 2004 white evangelicals in Ohio went for Bush 75-25 in Ohio, 77-23 in Georgia.) This provides some more evidence that, in contrast to the last few election cycles, the white evangelical vote is going to bifurcate–to the benefit of Obama in the swing states north of the Mason-Dixon line.

  • But are there enough evangelicals north of the Mason-Dixon line to make a sizable difference?

  • Mark Silk

    You betcha: in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio…