A SUSA poll of likely Virginia voters released today shows Obama up by 10 points, 53-43. I thought it might be interesting see where Obama’s new votes have come from, in terms of religious attendance. And so it turned out to be. Since SUSA’s late June Virginia poll, in which Obama led by only two points (49-47), the numbers for occasional attenders and those who say they almost never attend have hardly changed at all. (Obama lost one point off his margin with the occasionals, gained one with the almost nevers.) Virtually the entire change has come from a shift among regular attenders, who constitute half of Virginia’s likely voters. In June, McCain was leading among them 55-42. Now Obama’s better than even, 49-47.
Who are Obama’s new regulars? Since June he’s picked up four points worth of white voters and 21 points worth of black ones–which, given that African Americans make up just under one-fifth of Virginia voters, means about the same number of both. Which means that about half of the new regulars are white and half are African American.