HEALDSBURG, Calif. (RNS) Here in the Dry Creek section of the Russian River Valley, where vineyards produce high-end wines from every available field, the 12-month growing cycle is proceeding apace.

Grass is green, vines are dormant, and balloons mark the day’s public tastings.

All at once, time sprints, marches on and extends beyond sight.

Here in wine country, some day-to-day tinkering is required for a successful crop, such as responding to unseasonably warm weather two weeks ago. The 12-month cycle requires both familiar routines and ongoing adjustments to dynamic conditions.

Beyond the near term, vintners must consider trends in growing, marketing and consuming of wine. While never as precise as actual temperatures in February, those trends can be measured and their outcomes projected. A wise wine grower will include one eye on the grapes and another on the future.

Managing any enterprise, from vineyard to automaker to government to church, requires far more than counting today’s grapes, new-car sales, tax revenues or Sunday attendance.

We can’t simply plan next month’s activities and say we’ve planned for the future. Even quarter-to-quarter metrics don’t tell enough. Annual milestones — budgets, model years and taxes — fail to grasp the growing complexity of dynamic local markets, a fast-changing global economy, and ongoing political shifts.

The future also needs to be at the table. And this is where too many enterprises fall short.

By “future” I don’t mean a 10-year wish list or even a five-year list of what-ifs. Too much can happen on the way to five or 10.

When the future has an advocate at the decision-making table, it means someone asks whether today’s ongoing recession has implications for producing high-end wines.

It means asking whether instability in the Middle East adds greater urgency to making non-gasoline automobiles in the U.S.

In religion’s seemingly timeless realm, it means asking whether a complex set of measurable trends — falling house values, urbanization, career mobility, aging populations, crumbling buildings — are changing the religious landscape.

When future’s advocate isn’t invited into decision-making, then everything is a surprise. Accountability vanishes. Predictable needs become crises.

A prime example is long-standing pension obligations, public and private, that turn out to be underfunded, if not entirely unfunded, because poor managers got away with short-term priorities like boosting shareholder value or avoiding tax increases.

I counsel church leaders to stop managing for the short term and start focusing more on the future. The current crisis in mainline Protestant churches is a classic example of failing to take good measurements; we failed to read the trends, we failed to adjust to predictable outcomes, and now we’re being buffaloed by expensive facilities, aging constituents, dying churches and changed lifestyles that simply don’t connect with our familiar paradigms for worship and education.

All of this could have been seen as it unfolded. Other enterprises, working from the same pool of data, considered the future and changed their plans.

The scrambling, blaming and “house is burning!” shouts now unfolding in Wisconsin and mainline churches should be a cautionary tale about the folly of not inviting the future’s advocate to the decision-making table.

(Tom Ehrich is a writer, church consultant and Episcopal priest based in New York. He is the author of “Just Wondering, Jesus” and founder of the Church Wellness Project. His website is http://www.morningwalkmedia.com. Follow Tom on Twitter @tomehrich.)