The demographics that have attracted the most attention this presidential season are the gender gap between white men for Donald Trump and white women for Hillary Clinton, the proclivity of the less educated for Trump and the more educated for Clinton, and the embrace of Trump by white evangelicals.
What no one seems to have noticed is the marked preference for Clinton among voters in their thirties and forties.
Last week, a new Pew election survey found Clinton leading Trump nationwide by four points overall, but by 17 points — 46 percent to 29 percent — among voters 30 through 49. That compares with an 11-point spread for Clinton among voters 18-29, with Trump winning the support of voters 50-64 by two points and 65+ by 12.
In states where people know their votes will really count, thirty-somethings are even more strongly for Clinton.
In Georgia, newly in play, voters 30-44 are now backing Clinton over Trump by an astonishing 35 points, 56 percent to 21 percent. That compares to an eight-point Clinton lead among voters 18-29 and 15- and 26-point margins for Trump among voters 45-64 and 65+ respectively.
In Virginia, the latest poll shows Clinton leading Trump among voters 30-44 by 33 points, compared to four points among voters 18-29, 12 points among voters 45-64, and 11 points among voters 65+.
What’s the explanation?
I’d say what we’re seeing is a strong rejection of Trump by young parents. They’re the voters most focused on what their children’s future will be like, and it’s evident that they don’t trust Trump with it.
For those in the religion business, young parents are the greatest source of worry. This is the time of their lives when, historically, they would be joining churches and other houses of worship. These days they’re staying away, in droves.
This year, they’ll be looking after their children by voting for Hillary.