The early presidential contests provide a glimpse of the role religion may play on Super Tuesday. Two patterns are evident in the initial election results: reliance on a single religious constituency and support from a broad coalition of religious groups.
Perhaps the best known example of the single-constituency result is Mike Huckabee’s support from evangelicals in Iowa. But other examples include Barack Obama’s reliance on Black Protestants in South Carolina; Mitt Romney’s support from Mormons in the western caucuses; Hillary Clinton’s strong showing among white Catholics and Jews; and John McCain’s support from the less observant. Most candidates need this kind of strong support to rise above the crowd in the initial contests—a point illustrated in part by Rudy Giuliani’s weak backing among fellow Catholics in Florida and John Edwards’ less than overwhelming support from white Protestants in South Carolina.
But at some point, candidates need to broaden their religious support. So far Huckabee has failed to reach out beyond evangelicals–in fact, he has lost ground among them to other candidates. One of the challenges facing Obama on Super Tuesday is to attract more votes from white religious communities—as he may well have done in the Iowa caucuses. For Clinton, the challenge is to develop a clear edge over Obama among mainline and evangelical Protestants. Romney (in Michigan and Florida) and McCain (in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida) have assembled the broader religious coalitions. McCain has been the most consistent, obtaining sizeable support from evangelicals, mainline Protestants, and Catholics in the states he won.
These two patterns may appear on Super Tuesday. In the South, Huckabee’s backing among evangelicals and Obama’s support among black Protestants may be consequential, while Romney’s Mormon connections will likely matter in the Mountain West. Clinton’s Catholic and Jewish support could be crucial on the East and West coasts, where McCain’s less observant backers could be an important factor as well.
Broader religious coalitions may develop and perhaps across more than one state. Will McCain or Romney replicate their Florida coalitions elsewhere, and in how many places? Will Obama or Clinton claim the white Protestants, and if so, how often?
A key state to watch is Missouri, where religious diversity makes single constituency and broad coalitional results possible. On Super Tuesday, the Show Me state may have most to show about the impact(s) of religion.