Beyond the End Times: What evangelical support for Israel really reveals 

(RNS) — American evangelicals are often described as some of Israel’s strongest supporters, but also among its most misunderstood. The familiar critique is that they care about Israel because the modern Jewish state fits their expectations about the End Times and that Jewish people matter primarily because of the role they are believed to play in Christian eschatology.

That critique persists because many evangelicals hold strong beliefs about biblical prophecy, Jerusalem, the return of Christ and the theological importance of the Jewish people. Yet that is too simple. Evangelical support for Israel is often connected to theology, but that does not mean it is merely instrumental.

For the past eight years, we have studied evangelical public opinion toward Jews, Judaism and Israel. Our earlier work found that religious motivations remain the primary drivers of evangelical support for Israel but are not reducible to predictions about the imminent end of the world. They are also shaped by the belief that Jews remain God’s Chosen People today and enduringly.

Our recent survey research suggests something more surprising: Although doctrinally committed evangelicals are more likely to hold strong End Times beliefs, their support for Israel is not driven by eschatological urgency. It appears alongside, and in some ways, despite those beliefs. 

In December 2025, we commissioned an online survey of 3,800 self-identifying evangelicals and mainline Protestants in the U.S. The data was weighted to align with population estimates from Pew’s 2024 Religious Landscape Study. Credibility intervals ranged from ±1.9 to ±2.3 percentage points per question. Because the survey used non-probability sampling, we report credibility intervals rather than a traditional margin of error.

One challenge in studying evangelical opinion is that “evangelical” is both a label and a theological category. To address that complexity, we used the doctrinal framework developed by the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE). Under that framework, respondents are classified as evangelical if they strongly affirm four core beliefs: biblical authority, evangelism, Christ’s atoning death and salvation through trust in Jesus Christ alone. 

We distinguished between respondents who strongly endorsed all four statements, whom we describe here as “doctrinally evangelical” and other Protestant respondents. In our sample, 45% of self-identified evangelicals and 22% of self-identified mainline Protestants met the NAE threshold. 

As expected, doctrinally evangelical respondents were much more likely than other Protestants to connect contemporary events to biblical prophecy. Asked whether “We are living in or nearing the End Times” and whether “The Modern State of Israel represents the fulfillment of biblical prophecies,” roughly half of all Protestant respondents agreed at least somewhat. Among doctrinally evangelical respondents, agreement was much higher, ranging from 75% to 85%. 

The more important question is whether belief in prophecy necessarily means evangelical support for Israel is conditional, manipulative or indifferent to Jewish well-being in the present. Our data suggests that it does not. 

Consider the statement: “Christians should love and support Jewish people whether or not they accept Jesus as Messiah.” Nearly two-thirds of doctrinally evangelical respondents, 64.3%, strongly agreed. By comparison, 44.1% of other Protestants strongly agreed. When those who “somewhat agree” are included, 87.1% of doctrinally evangelical respondents affirmed the statement, compared with 78.6% of other Protestants. 

This matters because one common critique of evangelical support for Jews is that it is ultimately conditional on converting Jews. Our survey does not suggest that evangelicals have abandoned their missionary convictions. The doctrinal measure we used includes the belief that encouraging non-Christians to trust in Jesus Christ is personally important. But the data shows that these respondents do not see love and support for Jewish people as dependent upon Jewish acceptance of Jesus. 

The flags of Israel and the United States wave above an Israeli Defense Forces site, Feb. 23, 2018. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)

We also asked respondents to consider the statement: “My support for Israel comes from caring about the Jewish people today, not from beliefs about the End Times.” A majority of doctrinally evangelical respondents, 67.3%, agreed, slightly exceeding the share of other Protestants, 64.3%, who said the same. This is striking, because doctrinally, evangelical respondents were also most likely to hold strong End Times beliefs. More importantly, when we account for NAE theological commitment, belief in the Abrahamic covenant, religious socialization, ideology and other factors, End Times belief does not independently explain support for Israel. 

A similar pattern emerges when we ask about dignity and rights in the Holy Land. We asked whether “Christian support for Israel can be grounded in concern for the dignity and rights of all peoples in the Holy Land.” A majority of doctrinally evangelical respondents, 57.2%, strongly agreed, compared with 33.4% of other Protestants. When strong and moderate agreement are combined, 83.7% affirmed this inclusive moral framing, compared with 73.1% of other Protestants. 

That finding challenges the assumption that strong evangelical support for Israel necessarily entails indifference to Palestinian dignity or broader human rights concerns. Our data does not show that evangelicals are neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They tend to favor Israel over the Palestinians. But their pro-Israel convictions do not automatically translate into a rejection of universal moral concern. 

The most delicate finding concerns Jewish covenantal identity. We asked whether “God offers Jews a path to Him through their covenant, just as Christians have theirs through Jesus.” A majority of doctrinally evangelical respondents, 50.9%, strongly agreed, compared with 34.2% of other Protestants. This should not be read as proof that evangelicals have adopted a formal dual-covenant theology. Such a view would sit uneasily with evangelical teaching about salvation through Jesus Christ. 

What the finding does reveal is that many doctrinally evangelical respondents express more generous views toward Jewish people than their non-NAE Protestant counterparts. Their belief in Jewish chosenness appears to shape their attitudes in ways not captured by the caricature of Jews as mere instruments in a Christian End Times drama. The impulse seems to be one of respect rather than erasure. 

Taken together, these findings invert a common stereotype. The group most likely to believe that the modern State of Israel has prophetic significance is also the group most likely to say Christians should love and support Jewish people whether or not they accept Jesus as Messiah. The group most likely to believe we are living in or nearing the End Times is also highly likely to say its support for Israel comes from caring about Jewish people today. 

None of this means evangelical support for Israel is simple, or that it should be immune from criticism. Some evangelicals speak about Israel in ways that Jewish listeners find troubling, and some Christian rhetoric about prophecy can make Jews feel viewed less as neighbors than as symbols. 

But criticism should be based on what people actually believe, not only on the most suspicious interpretation of their theology. Our survey suggests that among doctrinally committed evangelicals, support for Israel is not merely eschatological or instrumental. It is bound up with a belief in the ongoing significance of the Jewish people, a sense of moral obligation toward Jewish flourishing and a desire to honor Jewish dignity. 

For many evangelicals, Israel is not just a sign of the End Times. It is also the homeland of a people they believe God has chosen and whom Christians are called to love. 

(Motti Inbari is a Jewish studies professor at UNC Pembroke. Kirill Bumin is associate dean of Metropolitan College at Boston University. They are the authors of “Christian Zionism in the Twenty-First Century.” The views expressed in this commentary do not necessarily reflect those of Religion News Service.)