VATICAN CITY (RNS) — As expected, black smoke emerged from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican, where cardinals cast their first votes on Wednesday (May 7), a sign to onlookers in St. Peter’s Square they have not reached a consensus on who should be the next pope.
The smoke emerged around 9 p.m. Rome time. The doors of the Sistine Chapel were closed for voting at 5:46 p.m.
In the past seven papal elections, it has not taken more than four days for the cardinals to reach the majority of votes necessary to elect a new pontiff. The 1939 conclave that elected Pius XII came to a decision on the second day on the third vote, while cardinals took four days to elect Pope John XXIII in 1958.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin entered the conclave as a front-runner, with reports indicating roughly 40 to 50 votes would be for him out of the 133 cardinal electors. A two-thirds majority is needed to choose the next pontiff, rounded up to 89 votes.
If the case for a Parolin papacy is not made within the first two days of voting, it’s likely the cardinals will start seeking other contenders — and ideological divisions over the future of the church might emerge.
Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline and Italian Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi are considered favorites among cardinals who wish to see the late Pope Francis’ legacy continue, especially his desire to open the church to those on the margins and include laypeople in its leadership.
Among the conservatives, Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from Congo are considered top contenders for their emphasis on church teaching and doctrine.
But while 80% of cardinals in this conclave were appointed by Francis, not all of them agreed with some of the most controversial aspects of his papacy, including his pastoral opening toward LGBTQ+ faithful and restriction on the Old Rite Mass said in Latin. If the College of Cardinals becomes entrenched in the politics of the church, it will be reflected in a longer wait for white smoke — a hint to the faithful that despite discussions of unity in the church’s leadership, the cardinals are divided.
According to church law, if the cardinals do not settle on a candidate after 13 votes, they are required to take a day of pause, prayer and reflection, and the Protodeacon of the College of Cardinals, Cardinal Domique François Joseph Mamberti, will preach a homily inviting the cardinals to seek an agreement.
Asked by journalists what day that break may occur, Vatican spokesperson Matteo Bruni said it could be either this Saturday or Sunday.
Unless the cardinals can make a case for the candidate they see fit to become pope, they will be forced to reconsider candidates they may have abandoned or turn their gaze to an unexpected dark horse.
The red hats are not only voting together — they are eating together, talking to one another and sleeping in the same hotel at the Domus Santa Marta in the Vatican, secluded from the outside world and entirely disconnected from the internet.
Before the election, the preacher of the papal household, Cardinal Raniero Cantalamessa, delivered a final homily. Then, the cardinals voted and each recited a formula as he handed in his vote.
With 133 cardinals, the most to ever convene in a conclave in the church’s history, the procedures took longer than normal. Votes are counted three times and sown together before the final tally is announced. Only then are the votes cast into the furnace: one for black smoke (no pope chosen), and one for white smoke (pope chosen).
Visitors await a smoke signal near St. Peter’s Square, rear, on the first day of the conclave, in Rome, Wednesday, May 7, 2025. (RNS photo/Tom Reese)
Outside, onlookers gathered in the square waited hours to see the smoke emerge. Some told RNS they didn’t expect white smoke, but many believed smoke would emerge by 7 p.m. As minutes dragged into hours, some of the tourists, exchange students and vowed religious sat down to wait as others left. People played hand-clapping games and others sang hymns.
Some waiting in the square said they hoped the next pope would be like Francis.
Maria José Rodriguez, who was on a pre-planned tourist trip from Madrid with her husband, said in Spanish she hopes the next pope carries on “the closeness with the poor, the closeness with whichever person, whichever race, whichever type, including gays.” Rodriguez, who described herself as a Catholic “not much practicing, but very believing,” said, “For me, this is important — a church open to everybody.”
Alexandra Villalba, a Panamanian working in Rome, said she hoped the next pope “will stay humble as Pope Francis was,” and called the opportunity to witness his successor being chosen “a blessing.”
After waiting five hours in the square, Sydney Lewis, who was visiting Rome for the first time from Auckland, New Zealand with his wife and son, said he hoped the next pope would be “someone who is supportive to youth.” His wife, Annette, added, “We want the church to be part of the global dynamics and not to be isolated by itself.”
Most standing in the square said they didn’t know much about the cardinals gathered inside, but from the lips of the Italians, one could hear various Italian cardinals’ names, (Pierbattista) “Pizzaballa,” (Raniero) “Cantalamessa.”
“I hope it’s a Sicilian. There are only two,” said Lauria Gusy in Italian, who works at a shop outside the square, listing Cardinal Francesco Montenegro and Cardinal Baldassare Reina. “I hope above all that it’s not a sanctimonious pope,” she said, adding she hoped the next pope would continue to show attention “to the least, to the people who need help.”
Many said they would be back again tomorrow, hoping to witness white smoke this time.
This story has been updated with additional comments in the last eight paragraphs. It was also corrected to accurately state who will be preaching to the cardinals if they don’t reach an agreement.