c. 1999 Religion News Service

(Andrew M. Greeley is a Roman Catholic priest, best-selling novelist and a sociologist at the University of Chicago National Opinion Research Center. Check out his home page at http://www.agreeley.com or contact him via e-mail at agreel(at)aol.com.)

UNDATED _ The BBC TV camera focused on Gerry Adams, head of Sein Fein, the political arm of the Irish Republican Army.”We have to thank David Trimble for his bravery in working for peace,”Adams said. The head of Sein Fein was thanking the head of the Ulster Unionist Party, the strongest of the Protestant parties in Northern Ireland, at the annual meeting of Sein Fein in Dublin.

It was an event that five years ago, five months ago, even five weeks ago, one would never have expected to see. Nor would Americans whose news media virtually ignored the Northern Ireland negotiations have expected to see it unless they had access to the BBC World Service or read the Irish Times on the Web.

Yet the apparent breakthrough in negotiations is a fascinating story whose absence from the American media is proof that those who make the news decisions don’t think the Irish or Irish Americans are very important. After all there’s only 40 million Americans who claim Irish ancestry.

First, the background to the story.

The Good Friday peace agreement a year-and-a-half ago finessed the issue of”decommissioning”of arms. It was to occur before 2000 but the new cross-community government was to be established as soon as the new Northern Ireland Assembly was elected.

However, Trimble’s mainline Ulster Unionists emerged from that election with a bare majority of Protestant votes in the Assembly. Therefore, Trimble chose to make IRA disarmament a pre-condition for the establishment of the new government.

The”Shinners”as the Unionists call Sinn Fein immediately rejected the demand on the grounds that Trimble and the Unionists were adding a condition that was not in the Good Friday Agreement.

Trimble coined the slogan”no guns, no government.”The IRA replied”no surrender,”because they argued that accepting this new condition for disarming would be in effect a surrender.

The impasse dragged on for more than a year. The nearly half of Northern Protestants who don’t like sharing power with Catholics were delighted. The good will of the Good Friday agreement dissipated and the historic distrust returned as the”hard men”on both sides created the issues for the debate.

One more Irish debacle, said the wise men of the American media.”Decommissioning”was a symbol. The IRA could turn over all its weapons tomorrow and buy more and better weapons on the international market the next day. However, the Irish are the people who invented symbolism and they know how important symbols become, especially if you want to make them important, as the Irish usually do.

Then two things happened. First, Trimble became concerned about who would be blamed for the failure of the Good Friday process. Why not let the Shinners into the government, he wondered off the record to some of his colleagues, and then when they won’t disarm we’ll dissolve the government and they’ll get the blame.

It was an ingenious scheme because it was win-win for the Unionists. If the IRA did disarm, they could take the credit and if it did not they would not be blamed. The weakness of the plan was that it seemed a compromise with the”no guns, no government”slogan. It would make Trimble look like he had blinked and was now saying,”a little government and then a few guns.” The second event was the almost miraculous intervention of George Mitchell,President Clinton’s mediator. Somehow, Mitchell was able to create _ for a second time _ an atmosphere of mutual trust on both sides of the bargaining table.

He proposed an elaborate sequencing of actions that might provide a way out with face saving for both sides. Both Adams and Trimble, now amazingly on speaking terms with one another, bought in and managed to hold off their respective hard men. The creation of at least a modicum of trust and respect between leaders on both sides was an extraordinary accomplishment.

Mitchell _ and Clinton _ deserve the next Nobel peace prize.

The whole story is an extraordinary one of patience, perseverance and courage. It is baffling that the American media ignored it for so long. The final outcome is still in doubt. The hard men on both sides have not given up.

Will members of the IRA really start turning over their guns by the February deadline? Will dissident and ambitious unionist leaders sabotage the new government? Or has the point of no return finally been crossed for both sides? In Clinton’s inelegant metaphor, have both drunks finally staggered out of the tavern arm in arm?

DEA END GREELEY