c. 2005 Religion News Service

VATICAN CITY _ In the days after Pope John Paul II died, cardinals said they were looking for a successor who shared his charisma, worldview and other personal traits.

Still, the conventional wisdom of historians and church experts holds that John Paul’s successor is unlikely to repeat at least one defining mark of his papacy _ its 26-year length, the third longest in church history.

After his long reign, in which the Vatican consolidated power over the worldwide church, it may be time to elect a pope who would serve less than a decade, some said.

Elected at age 58 in October 1978, John Paul was 84 when he died.

“There’s a feeling that after a very long papacy like John Paul’s, you don’t want another very long papacy, because it puts the stamp of a couple of people on the papacy just too firmly,” said the Rev. Thomas Reese, editor of the Jesuit magazine America.

Many church experts expect the next pope to be someone whose current age will prevent him from leaving footprints as deep as John Paul’s, someone now in his mid-60s or 70s _ a so-called “caretaker” pope.

Even then, recent history provides grounds for caution as the cardinals convene April 18 to start their private election.

In the last 150 years, historians note, several popes have defied the expectations that got them elected, either by staying alive a long time or by effecting surprising changes during a short-term papacy.

The most recent example: In 1958, after the death of Pope Pius XII who had served 20 years, the conclave chose Cardinal Angelo Roncalli, who became Pope John XXIII.

Roncalli was nearly 77 and quite overweight.

“It was a very safe bet that he wasn’t going to be around for too long; and he wasn’t,” said John-Peter Pham, author of “Heirs of the Fisherman: Behind the Scenes of Papal Death and Succession.”

But although John died five years later, in his short rule he initiated dramatic reform, calling the Second Vatican Council.

The council led to significant changes in church liturgy and doctrine, liberal changes that appalled many of the same cardinals who elected Roncalli, according to “Behind Locked Doors: A History of Papal Elections,” by Frederic Baumgartner.

Another example of cardinals not getting what they bargained for came in 1878.

Pope Pius IX had just served 32 years, the longest reign of any leader of the church besides St. Peter. The cardinals replaced Pius IX with Vincenzo Pecci, who became Leo XIII.

Pecci was 68 and had always been frail. In fact, “He looked like he was at death’s door his whole life,” said Monsignor Robert Wister, a church historian at Seton Hall University and CBS analyst on papal succession.

Though cardinals expected Leo’s papacy would be short, he served as pope for 25 years. He took positions that some cardinals who elected him found too progressive, becoming the first pope to write about workers’ rights, labor unions and social justice, Pham said. Historians have viewed Leo XIII’s studied reinvention of the papacy as favorable for the church even after what was considered a tumultuous reign by Pius IX.

“You can elect a man (pope) under any presupposition that inspires you to elect him,” Pham said, “but ultimately you vest him, the moment he’s elected, with full authority _ and as such, all bets are off.”

There are other reasons cardinals should not try to elect a “caretaker” pope, Reese said.

“We’ve had a number of years now with a sick, elderly pope,” he said. “Do we want immediately to return to that?”

Said Reese: “I’m afraid if they elect somebody who’s close to 80 years of age, very quickly he’s going to get weak, he’s going to get sick, and we’re going to have another old weak pope governing the church. We’ve had that the last few years, and I don’t think that’s the image the cardinals want to present to the world.”

John L. Allen Jr., who as Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter has interviewed several dozen of the 115 cardinals expected to vote, said he has spoken to many who do not plan to count age as a major factor.

“I get the sense that if they found the right guy who was a little younger than they might want, or a little older than they might want, they’d be willing to vote for him despite age,” Allen said.

Cardinals at either end of the age spectrum include Christoph Schonborn of Austria and Joseph Ratzinger, former head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, of Germany.

“Someone like Schonborn, who’s 60 _ there are a lot of people who’d be interested in him despite that fact he’s younger. Someone like Ratzinger, who turns 78 (on) April 16 _ I’m confident he’s going to get a lot of votes (in early balloting).”

MO/JL/RB END DIAMANT

(Jeff Diamant is a staff writer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J.)