Huck and the Catholics

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A few days a ago Philip Klinkner at Polysigh showed that Huckabee tended to lose Iowa’s Catholic-majority counties to Romney–signaling a problem for him moving forward to states with big Catholic populations. Yesterday Reuters did a story on Huck’s outreach to Catholics in New Hampshire, where there are more Catholics than anyone. It seems too little too late–but clearly something to watch out for in places like Florida, land o’ Schiavo.

  • Klinkner’s finding is pretty interesting. It fits well with what we know about the Huckabee vote from survey data. It may tell us more about the Huckbee campaign than anything else. He won a very large majority of Iowa counties, tapping into the “Protestant majority” in the Hawkeye state. But this pattern raises the issue of the fabled Catholic vote and whether it will stay in the GOP column in 2008. These data have their limitations, of course: We don’t know if Romney actually got more Catholics or not, just that he did better in Catholic counties. Another thought: Catholics report very little hostility towards Mormons and evangelicals do. So this map may be as much about evangelical skepticism toward a Mormon candidate as it is about Catholic wariness of evangelical candidates.