Now Virginia. I continue to be struck with the consistency with which SUSA’s state polls show McCain leading strongly among regular worship attenders, Obama among those who attend occasionally and almost never. John Green and I have always measured what we call the religion gap by the differential in the votes for Republican and Democratic candidates among those who tell exit pollsters that they attend worship once a week or more. In the 2006 midterms, this gap dropped seven points, from 20 to 13. If SUSA’s regulars are taken as something akin to that (they doubtless include at least some of those who say they attend a few times a month), then the 13-point gap in Virginia (now a swing state) suggests things remain close to where they were two years ago–which would be just fine for Democrats.
Update: See Mass. Same pattern, mutatis mutandis.