Last week’s Quinnipiac survey of Floridians, Ohians, and Pennsylvanians, provides some confirmation of my hypothesis that evangelicals may be dividing along regional lines. In Florida, McCain runs ahead of Obama by the usual GOP margin of three-to-one (71 percent to 23 percent), whereas in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the margins are only two-to-one (62-31 and 60-32 respectively). Meanwhile, Jews in Florida–the one state where they’re likely to make a difference and the state where they’re considered most likely to trend McCainwards–show stronger than (I would have) suspected support for Obama: 65 percent to 29 percent.
Update: The Forward on McCain’s Jewish outreach. Therein, Eric Cantor, the only Jewish Republican in the House of Representatives, makes a less than true statement; to wit: “The polls are also showing that more than 32% of Jewish voters support McCain. We know that for the Democrats, they never had a president who got less than 70% of the Jewish vote.” In fact they did have such a president. Once. In 1916, Woodrow Wilson was re-elected with 55 percent of the Jewish vote.