White House Aerial View from the top of Washington Monument, Washington DC, USA Image ID: 232211959 Copyright: jiawangkun Courtesy Shutterstock

Memo To: POTUS 45 (if you take my advice)

From: Your flinty-eyed campaign strategist

Re: How to win the white evangelicals

As you know, there are now sixteen GOP candidates for president. Each of you faces a severe early challenge in making your candidacy stand out from the rest. (Except Trump. He already stands out, but hopefully he will also burn out.)

This memo is about the pivotal issue of how you can win the white evangelicals.

Here’s the deal. White evangelicals may constitute anywhere from 40-50% of GOP primary voters this election year. They are, of course, heavily concentrated in the Midwest and South. If you have any hope of winning or placing in Iowa, you need them. Then of course they will be pivotal in what may become a massive SEC primary on March 1.

Unless the Democrats do their religious outreach a whole lot better than we anticipate, any Republican ticket can pretty much count on getting 75% or even 80% of white evangelicals come November. But in swing states like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Colorado, getting especially strong turnout and support from white evangelicals could make all the difference. Everything we do now to make them comfortable with you can help you then.

It’s important to draw a few distinctions here. An evangelical is a theologically conservative Protestant. A fundamentalist is usually even more conservative, more rigid, and more angry. Billy Graham was an evangelical. Jerry Falwell was a fundamentalist. Our strategists have been able to bring them together for the party since 1980. The distinction is not hard and fast but you will probably notice the difference in your meet and greets.

Grassroots evangelicals and fundamentalists should be distinguished from what are sometimes called “grasstops” leaders. The latter are both loosely aligned with each other and also compete for influence. They function as gatekeepers to the evangelical community and to particular denominations. They are more politically sophisticated than their foot soldiers and generally know that politics is not pure as the driven snow. A lot of these leaders are pastors, though some are denominational and parachurch executives. Many have considerable political experience.

Never forget that these visible evangelical leaders, for example, Russell Moore of the Southern Baptists and Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, gain power within their constituencies to the extent that you and other candidates pay attention to them. So working with these guys benefits you and benefits them. Paying homage to the gatekeepers as they pay homage to us is a formula that has worked well for us since Ronald Reagan mastered it in the 1980s.

Remember that these gatekeeper guys are at least trying to appear neutral when it comes to actual political affiliation, or the staging of candidate events. (After all, there are laws about this whole church/state separation thing. The Democrat-leaning faith leaders have the same issue, just with different constituencies.) So they might invite you to a “faith forum” or something that is pitched as non-partisan. Of course everyone knows what’s going on, and no Democrat would ever consider going — but when you get invited to an event like that you want to pitch your talk at a faith and values level rather than sounding much like a Party Man there.

READ:  Jonathan Merritt: Southern Baptists cozy up to GOP after pulling back

White evangelicals generally are with us on low taxes, low social services, low-regulation, free-market economics, and a muscular US military policy. Just saying what you would usually say on those issues is fine. What they really want is to hear you strike those social conservative notes on issues like abortion and gay marriage, and to really sound like you mean it and are going to do something about it.

They also want Republican presidential candidates to sound like evangelicals at a personal faith level. So: mention God frequently in your speeches. Talk about how you became a believer — preferably how you first “came to Christ” or were “born again.” Talk about America’s Christian heritage, now under attack by the liberal Supreme Court, etc. Say something about the role of faith in your everyday life. Drop in a few references to times that you prayed about a decision. You might consider using a few carefully vetted Bible quotes. (We have staff who can help with that.) Feature your family. Start going to a mainstream evangelical church now and then.

Here’s our advantage. White evangelicals have been married to our party since Reagan and Falwell. Their numbers are declining somewhat, and so is their influence in American culture. They so much want to believe what we’ve been telling them since 1979 — that if they can just elect the right Republican president, it’s not too late to reverse the social trends they are worried about. It’s a powerful hope, and it sometimes wins elections for us. If you convince them that you are the one candidate who can and will do what they so profoundly hope, you will win their support.

What you do about their agenda after you are elected president will be entirely up to you.

Look me up on Facebook and Twitter. All relevant, civil comments are welcome.