In the papal conclave, expectations and momentum matter

(RNS) — During presidential primary season, American commentators are always talking about whether a presidential candidate is meeting expectations and whether the candidate has momentum.

Even if a candidate wins a primary, if he or she does not win by as big a margin as expected, the media will not see it as a win. On the other hand, a nobody who loses in a surprisingly close race will be seen as a potential winner in future primaries.

Momentum also matters in presidential primaries. Candidates must continue doing better. A candidate that begins slowly but builds is seen as a winner. A defeat, even after a few wins, can make the media and voters look to other candidates.

The same is true in papal conclaves where expectations and momentum matter.

On the first evening of a conclave, which this year will be Wednesday, May 7, the conclave can have one vote if the cardinals want. On the following days, the cardinals will vote twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon until someone gets a two-thirds majority. If after three days the cardinals have still not elected anyone, the voting sessions can be suspended for a maximum of one day for prayer and discussion among the electors.

The first vote is crucial for the leading candidates.

For example, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, is considered the leading contender for the papacy. But if he gets fewer than expected votes on the first ballot, that could kill his candidacy because it might lead his supporters to abandon him for a cardinal who has a chance of winning.

Likewise, other candidates like Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, who have been listed in the media as papabile, need to do well on the first couple of ballots before their supporters switch to other candidates.

On the other hand, if a cardinal who was hardly mentioned in the press gets significant votes on the first ballot, he is beating expectations and could become pope if the so-called frontrunners fall by the wayside.

For example, if two cardinals have the same number of votes, but one gets more votes than expected and the other gets fewer votes than expected, the one beating expectations is the one who will probably do better on the next ballot.

To win the papacy, a candidate also needs momentum; he needs to gain votes on each ballot. If he peaks or begins to lose votes, he will lose momentum, and the cardinals will judge him nonviable and move to other candidates.

At the last conclave, the cardinals who were played up in the Italian media as leading candidates did not do so well on the first couple of votes. Jorge Bergoglio, on the other hand, did better than expected on the first ballot and caught the cardinals’ attention. He continued to gain votes on every ballot and became Pope Francis. He beat expectations and had momentum.

This analysis presumes the candidate will be chosen in the first few days. If the voting goes on and on with no one receiving the necessary two-thirds of the votes, then all bets are off. The cardinals may return to a candidate who was set aside earlier but now requires a second look in the hope of finding someone who can get a two-thirds majority. Or they could end up choosing someone no one has talked about.

It is impossible to predict what will happen in a conclave, but in the first few days, expectations and momentum matter.